Here is something completely unexpected. I set out to determine if my proposed buy back of an AR-15 from a friend was too much money. Was I paying too much for the weapon? It appears that at least a few of my friends were laughing at the notion, and further, if someone took me up on the offer, they would be laughing at me all the way to the bank. My original thought was that they are probably right. I didn't do much research to come up with the $750 as I was more or less taking what appeared to be a fair market value for a rifle that was legal, operational, and in fairly good condition.
By estimating the value based on probabilities I learned something more important than the concept of fire power...or more specifically that we should restrict the amount of lethal fire power that any single person could tote into the public square. What I've learned is that beyond fire power there is a draw to these weapons that transcends most descriptions of simple inanimate objects. The draw to these weapons is the potential for each weapon to cause damage. It's the opposite of the value of tools. Go into the Home Depot and you can rate tools on their ability to build something. To create something useful out of nothing. Yes, a circular saw is an inanimate object, but in the hands of a home owner becomes a tool that enables some pretty sophisticated carpentry. So reversing again back to fire arms, the damage potential that any single gun will possess is directly related to it's ability to inflict damage. Can I kill a wild boar with a single shot at range? Can I stop an intruder at close range before they can harm my family? Each of these things carry value that is hard to quantify. The wild boar could be calculate based on damage to agriculture and the amount of time and money spending to eradicate the pest. The value of home defense is almost impossible to place a number value on.
But I was doing different math. I was trying to determine the probability that any single gun, of the 300 Million plus currently in circulation in the United States, would be used in a school shooting. And from that, assess the Expected Value of that weapon. Until I did the math I couldn't put a number on it. Of course these numbers really don't mean a lot in a practical sense, but they do show something more tangible, dollars, numbers we can all relate to in a way to get some insight on value.
The number that emerged was $2,161 in Expected Value. I define this value as the expected dollar value that is associated with any single weapon used in a school killing to take a single life. This should then be the dollar value we, as a society, should be willing to pay to take that weapon off the street. What is immediately clear is that I underestimated the dollar value of a weapon potential use in a school shooting. What is the exact number? That's unimportant. What's fascinating is that it's clear that the destructive value of these weapons will always far exceed their "street" value. This is an intangible that's almost impossible to grapple with. But if you've ever held a fire arm in your hands and have been unable to grasp it's draw....not unlike holding a precision tool (but not being a carpenter and knowing with to do with it) or a musical instrument (but not being a musician and knowing what to do with it) we all know we are holding something that should be taken care of, something of danger that should be respected, and something of value. I now have another number, beyond energy in Joules, to talk about this subject.
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